Alarm of Malthus and government intervention policy to population of China
ZHONG Xiao-qing1,2,3,4
1. School of Life Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China; 2. Lingnan College, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China; 3. State Key Lab of Biocontrol, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China; 4. State Key Lab for Architecture on Subtropic, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou 510650, China
During 1949~1979,the contradiction between population and resource of China was from the foods.Under the curse of Malthus during the periods we considered the whole country was in the trap of Malthus because both the population and production of foods increased,while the average levels of food decreased.The periods during the trap of Malthus began from 1958 and ended in 1979,and the lowest was in 1960.Because of the pressure from foods,the four policies of household registration system,coupons system(including the food coupons and food cards system),up to the mountains and down to the villages,and family planning were carried out one by one.With the total age-specific fertility rate(TAFR or TFR) population model Pn=(TFR/2)Pn-1,we calculated the reduced population if there had been not the four government intervention policies. Given the "TFR=6.0" from 1949,the population would have been 14.58 billion,about 13.252 billion more than the actual population 1.328 billion of 2008;given the "TFR=5.0",the population would have been 8.4375 billion,about 7.1095 billion more than the actual population of 1.328 billion;given the "TFR=4.0",the population would have been 4.32 billion,about 2.992 billion more than the actual population;given the "TFR=3.0",the population would have been 1.8225 billion,about 0.4945 billion more than the actual population of 1.328 billion.It was proved that the four policies of government intervention in China were successful and effective.
钟晓青1,2,3,4. 马尔萨斯“警醒”与中国人口的国家干预政策[J]. , 2011, 30(4): 459-464.
ZHONG Xiao-qing1,2,3,4. Alarm of Malthus and government intervention policy to population of China. , 2011, 30(4): 459-464.