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| Simulation study on impacts of clmate change on the production of wheat |
| Du Rui-ying1,2,3, YANG Wu-de1, XU Yin-long2, FENG Qiang2 |
| 1. Agrometeorolgy Institute, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081; 2. South of China Agricultural University, Guangzhou 510642; 3. Shanxi Agricultural University, Taigu 030801; 4. Geography Institute Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100081 |
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Abstract The effects of climate change on winter wheat and spring wheat of China were analyzed by using the stochastic weather generator which combinded the CERES-wheat model with the climate change scenarios predicted by the climate model with the amount of CO2 increased.Then control water the wheat under A2、B2 climate change scenario,with the heat and CO2 effect,were simulated respectively.The results indicate that the growing season of wheat is shortened because of climate change,.The stages of Winter wheat were more shorten than Spring wheat.In ten sites of North China,different areas and climate conditions will have different optimum water conditions.Variation scope of optimum water conditions is 40%~80%.Without the effects of CO2,wheat yield will increase under optimum water condition in the future.With CO2 effects,wheat yield has extensive increase.
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Received: 25 February 2006
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